Issued at 200 AM MST Thu Oct 09 2025
000 WTPZ45 KNHC 090835 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025 200 AM MST Thu Oct 09 2025 Octave has managed to hold onto a small area of deep convection since the previous advisory, despite east-southeasterly shear analyzed by UW-CIMSS to be around 22 kt. However, the satellite presentation has degraded, with the low-level circulation becoming more ragged. The latest subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were both 2.0/30 kt, while recent objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ranged between 29 and 34 kt. Considering the deterioration in satellite appearance and the latest intensity estimates, the initial intensity for this advisory has been lowered to 35 kt. Octave is now moving east-northeastward, or 065 degrees at 16 kt. This general motion is expected to continue this morning, followed by an eastward turn later today or tonight toward a newly developing tropical cyclone (Invest 90E) off the southwestern coast of Mexico. The NHC forecast track follows a blend of the Google DeepMind ensemble mean and the latest multi-model consensus aids. Octave appears to be nearing the end of its life, as strong easterly shear of more than 30 kt is expected to continue affecting the system during the next day or so. The current burst of deep convection southwest of the low-level center is forecast to collapse soon, according to the latest GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery. This may already be occurring, with recent infrared satellite images showing warming cloud tops and the remaining convection becoming further displaced to the southwest of the low-level center. The new NHC intensity forecast calls for Octave to become a post-tropical remnant low in 12 hours and dissipate by 24 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 16.9N 111.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 17.4N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)
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