434 WTPZ43 KNHC 072044 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Terry Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021 300 PM CST Sun Nov 07 2021 The overall organization of the depression has become slightly better since this morning. Recent one-minute GOES-16 visible satellite imagery suggests that the center is better defined and there has been a persistent cluster of convection just southeast of the estimated center since this morning. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB were unchanged at 30-35 kt, but ADT and SATCON estimates are in the 39-42 kt range. Although a 1410 UTC ASCAT-A overpass missed the center, it did reveal an area of 30-40 kt winds along the edge of the swath, however the strongest vectors were flagged due to rain contamination. Given the recent improvement in both center definition and the persistent convection near that feature, the intensity is increased to 35 kt for this advisory. Terry is moving just north of due west at 275/12 kt. The steering currents ahead of the storm remains well established with a strong deep-layer ridge located to the north. That feature should guide Terry westward to west-northwestward at about 12 kt for the next several days. The NHC track guidance is in good agreement on the overall scenario, but there is spread regarding the cyclone's forward speed. The NHC track leans closer to the slightly more southern and deeper GFS solution. This is along the southern side of the guidance envelope and fairly close to the speed of the various consensus aids. The storm is forecast to remain within low vertical wind shear conditions over the next couple of days, however it is likely to ingest drier and more stable air that is located just to the north. That stable air is expected to keep significant strengthening from occurring, but some limited intensification is possible during the next day or two. By Tuesday night or Wednesday, environmental conditions are forecast become more hostile with an increase in vertical shear and decreasing mid-level humidity. Those factors should cause weakening and degeneration to a remnant low by 96 hours. The global models indicate that the system will open up into a trough along the ITCZ by day 5 and that is reflected in the official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 8.5N 102.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 8.9N 104.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 9.4N 106.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 9.7N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 9.8N 111.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 10/0600Z 9.9N 114.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 10.0N 116.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 10.0N 121.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown