Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Roslyn Public Advisory


000
WTPZ34 KNHC 212345
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Roslyn Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192022
700 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2022

...ROSLYN EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF 
THE COAST OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 105.3W
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to San Blas
* Las Islas Marias

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of San Blas to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South of Playa Perula to Manzanillo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of southwestern and west-central
Mexico should monitor the progress of Roslyn.  Additional watches
or warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas
tonight or Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Roslyn was
located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 105.3 West.  Roslyn is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a turn 
toward the northwest and north-northwest is expected overnight, 
followed by turn to the north on Saturday and a north-northeastward 
motion Saturday night and Sunday.  On the forecast track, the center 
of Roslyn will move parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico 
tonight and early Saturday, then approach the coast of west-central 
Mexico, making landfall along this coastline Saturday night or 
Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Steady to rapid strengthening is expected during the next
day or so, and Roslyn is forecast to become a hurricane later 
tonight.  Roslyn is expected to still be a hurricane when it reaches 
the coast of west-central Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area by late Saturday or Saturday night.
Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by midday
Saturday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
beginning Saturday night or early Sunday, with tropical storm
conditions possible by Saturday evening.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area on Saturday or Saturday night.

RAINFALL: Roslyn is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals across coastal areas of southwestern and west-central
Mexico:

Guerrero and Michoac√°n and the lower coast of Colima: 1 to 3 inches

Upper coast of Colima, Jalisco, western Nayarit including Islas
Marias, and southeastern Sinaloa: 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts
of 8 inches

This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas
of rugged terrain.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall.  Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF:  Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of west-central Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula through the weekend.  These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



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