000 WTPZ34 KNHC 211746 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Roslyn Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022 100 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2022 ...ROSLYN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 104.8W ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Playa Perula to Punta Mita A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Cabo Corrientes to El Roblito * Las Islas Marias A Tropical Storm Warnings is in effect for... * South of Playa Perula to Manzanillo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico should monitor the progress of Roslyn. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Roslyn was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 104.8 West. Roslyn is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northwest and north-northwest is forecast tonight and Saturday, followed by a northward and then north-northeastward motion Saturday night and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Roslyn will move parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico today and tonight, then approach the coast of west-central Mexico, making landfall along this coastline Saturday night or Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. While Roslyn has changed little in strength over the past several hours, rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Roslyn is expected to become a hurricane later today or tonight. In addition, Roslyn is expected to still be a hurricane when it reaches the coast of west-central Mexico on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area by late Saturday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by midday Saturday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area beginning Saturday night or early Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Saturday evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area on Saturday. RAINFALL: Roslyn is expected to produce the following rainfall totals across coastal areas of southwestern and west-central Mexico: Guerrero and Michoacán and the lower coast of Colima: 1 to 3 inches Upper coast of Colima, Jalisco, western Nayarit including Islas Marias and southeastern Sinaloa: 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas of rugged terrain. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven