Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Roslyn Public Advisory


000
WTPZ34 KNHC 211746
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Roslyn Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192022
100 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2022

...ROSLYN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN 
STRENGTH...
 ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO THE 
COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 104.8W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to Punta Mita

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Cabo Corrientes to El Roblito
* Las Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warnings is in effect for...
* South of Playa Perula to Manzanillo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of southwestern and west-central
Mexico should monitor the progress of Roslyn.  Additional watches
or warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas
later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Roslyn was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 104.8 West. Roslyn is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue today.  A turn toward the
northwest and north-northwest is forecast tonight and Saturday,
followed by a northward and then north-northeastward motion Saturday
night and Sunday.  On the forecast track, the center of Roslyn will
move parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico today and tonight,
then approach the coast of west-central Mexico, making landfall
along this coastline Saturday night or Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  While Roslyn has changed little in strength over the past 
several hours, rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day 
or so, and Roslyn is expected to become a hurricane later today or 
tonight. In addition, Roslyn is expected to still be a hurricane 
when it reaches the coast of west-central Mexico on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area by late Saturday.  Winds are expected to
first reach tropical storm strength by midday Saturday, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
beginning Saturday night or early Sunday, with tropical storm
conditions possible by Saturday evening.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area on Saturday.

RAINFALL:  Roslyn is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals across coastal areas of southwestern and west-central
Mexico:

Guerrero and Michoacán and the lower coast of Colima: 1 to 3 inches
Upper coast of Colima, Jalisco, western Nayarit including Islas
Marias and southeastern Sinaloa: 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts
of 8 inches

This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas
of rugged terrain.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall.  Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF:  Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of west-central Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula through the weekend.  These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven



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