Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Roslyn Public Advisory


000
WTPZ34 KNHC 210547
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Roslyn Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192022
100 AM CDT Fri Oct 21 2022

...ROSLYN MOVING PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FOR 
NOW...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ALONG THE COAST OF 
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 103.6W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Pacific coast of Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Pacific coast of Mexico south of Playa Perula to Manzanillo

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of southwestern and west-central
Mexico and the Islas Marias should monitor the progress of this
system. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for
portions of these areas later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Roslyn was
located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 103.6 West. Roslyn is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward
the northwest is expected today, followed by a north-northwestward 
motion on Saturday and a northward motion Saturday night into 
Sunday. On the forecast track, Roslyn is expected to move parallel 
to the southwestern coast of Mexico through Saturday, then approach 
the west-central coast of Mexico on Saturday night and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and 
Roslyn is expected to become a hurricane by this evening or tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area along the coast of mainland Mexico by Saturday evening, with
tropical storm conditions possible on Saturday. Tropical storm
conditions are also possible in the tropical storm watch area on
Saturday.

RAINFALL:  The outer rainbands of Roslyn may produce rainfall totals
of 1 to 3 inches along coastal areas of Guerrero and Michoac√°n and
2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches along coastal areas
of Colima and Jalisco. Roslyn is also forecast to bring locally
heavy rainfall to coastal areas of Nayarit including Islas Marias,
and southeastern Sinaloa. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding
and landslides in areas of rugged terrain.

SURF:  Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of west-central Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg



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