Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Roslyn Forecast Advisory


613 
WTPZ24 KNHC 201448
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192022
1500 UTC THU OCT 20 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 102.0W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 102.0W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 101.7W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.4N 102.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.7N 103.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.3N 104.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.2N 105.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 18.6N 106.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 20.3N 105.9W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 24.0N 104.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 102.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN





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