Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Roslyn Forecast Advisory


000
WTPZ24 KNHC 212042
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192022
2100 UTC FRI OCT 21 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA MITA NORTHWARD TO SAN BLAS...AND FOR THE
ISLAS MARIAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM EL
ROBLITO NORTHWARD TO MAZATLAN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF PLAYA PERULA TO MANZANILLO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ROSLYN.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES
OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS
TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 105.0W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  60SE  20SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  60SE  30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 105.0W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 104.8W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.0N 105.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.3N 106.3W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.2N 106.1W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 22.6N 105.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  50SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 25.7N 102.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 105.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 22/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




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