Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Roslyn Forecast Advisory


000
WTPZ24 KNHC 210838
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192022
0900 UTC FRI OCT 21 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM PLAYA
PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF
PLAYA PERULA TO MANZANILLO.  A HURRICANE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED
FOR LAS ISLAS MARIAS AND FROM SAN BLAS TO EL ROBLITO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO EL ROBLITO
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF PLAYA PERULA TO MANZANILLO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ROSLYN.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES
OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS
LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 103.8W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  80SE  20SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE  60SE   0SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 103.8W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 103.5W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.6N 104.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.4N 105.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.7N 106.2W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.5N 106.2W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  80SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 23.0N 105.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  10NW.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  50SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 25.7N 103.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 103.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 21/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG




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