NHC Weather Outlook

Tropical Storm Rose Forecast Advisory


000
WTNT22 KNHC 201442
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172021
1500 UTC MON SEP 20 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N  33.4W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE  30SE  30SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N  33.4W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N  33.0W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.0N  34.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.0N  36.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.6N  37.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.1N  38.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 25.4N  39.1W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 26.7N  40.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 29.0N  40.0W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 31.0N  38.0W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N  33.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE




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