Pacific Hurricane and Tropical Cyclone Track Updates

Tropical Storm Rick Wind Speed Probabilities



000
FOPZ12 KNHC 230846
PWSEP2

TROPICAL STORM RICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172021               
0900 UTC SAT OCT 23 2021                                            

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                                         

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   4(12)   X(12)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
ISLAS MARIAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)

MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   X( 8)
MAZATLAN       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
MAZATLAN       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)

SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   4(13)   X(13)
SAN BLAS       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
SAN BLAS       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  16(17)   3(20)   X(20)
P VALLARTA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
P VALLARTA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)

15N 105W       34  2   3( 5)   5(10)   5(15)   3(18)   X(18)   X(18)

BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)  35(40)   1(41)   X(41)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   1(12)   X(12)
BARRA NAVIDAD  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)

MANZANILLO     34  X   3( 3)   3( 6)  11(17)  42(59)   1(60)   X(60)
MANZANILLO     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  20(21)   1(22)   X(22)
MANZANILLO     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

L CARDENAS     34  1   6( 7)  24(31)  37(68)  17(85)   X(85)   X(85)
L CARDENAS     50  X   1( 1)   4( 5)  20(25)  21(46)   X(46)   X(46)
L CARDENAS     64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)  15(25)   X(25)   X(25)

ZIHUATANEJO    34  2   6( 8)  27(35)  29(64)  10(74)   X(74)   X(74)
ZIHUATANEJO    50  X   1( 1)   3( 4)  14(18)   9(27)   X(27)   X(27)
ZIHUATANEJO    64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   5(11)   X(11)   X(11)

15N 100W       34  4  11(15)   5(20)   3(23)   2(25)   X(25)   X(25)
15N 100W       50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

ACAPULCO       34  2   4( 6)   8(14)   6(20)   3(23)   X(23)   X(23)
ACAPULCO       50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

P MALDONADO    34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    



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