000 WTPZ32 KNHC 230546 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rick Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021 100 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021 ...RICK CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 101.3W ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to Punta San Telmo A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Zihuatanejo to Tecpan de Galeana * West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Hurricane Warning and a Tropical Storm Warning will likely be required for portions of the coast of Mexico later this morning. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rick was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 101.3 West. Rick is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue this morning. A turn to the north-northwest is expected to begin later today or tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Rick will approach the coast of Mexico on Sunday and Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast through Sunday, and Rick is expected to become a hurricane later today or tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area by late Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Sunday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch areas by Sunday afternoon. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of where the center of Rick makes landfall in southwestern Mexico. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated storm total amounts of 15 inches across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima starting Saturday night. This will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Rick will begin to affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown