Pacific Hurricane and Tropical Cyclone Track Updates

Tropical Storm Rick Forecast Advisory



324 
WTPZ22 KNHC 222055
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM RICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172021
2100 UTC FRI OCT 22 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO TO PUNTA SAN
TELMO...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM EAST OF ZIHUATANEJO TO
TECPAN DE GALEANA AND FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ZIHUATANEJO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF ZIHUATANEJO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA
* WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE CURRENT
WATCH AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 101.0W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 101.0W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 100.9W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 13.7N 101.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.6N 102.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.3N 102.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.1N 102.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.1N 103.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.3N 103.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE  70SE  30SW  30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 23.2N 103.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 101.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 23/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH





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