Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Rick Forecast Advisory


000
WTPZ22 KNHC 230241
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM RICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172021
0300 UTC SAT OCT 23 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ZIHUATANEJO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF ZIHUATANEJO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA
* WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 101.3W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 101.3W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 101.2W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.0N 101.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.8N 102.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.5N 102.4W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.4N 102.8W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.7N 103.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  70SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.4N 103.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE  70SE  30SW  30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 24.0N 104.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 101.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 23/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




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