Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Pamela Wind Speed Probabilities


000
FOPZ11 KNHC 110231
PWSEP1

TROPICAL STORM PAMELA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162021               
0300 UTC MON OCT 11 2021                                            

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAMELA WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)  21(26)  36(62)   X(62)   X(62)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  18(21)   X(21)   X(21)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   X(10)   X(10)

SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  19(23)  40(63)   X(63)   X(63)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  21(23)   X(23)   X(23)
SAN JOSE CABO  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   X(11)   X(11)

LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)   X(15)   X(15)
LA PAZ         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
LA PAZ         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

GUAYMAS        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  18(19)   X(19)   X(19)
LOS MOCHIS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
LOS MOCHIS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

CULIACAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  59(60)   X(60)   X(60)
CULIACAN       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  27(27)   X(27)   X(27)
CULIACAN       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   X(10)   X(10)

ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)  10(15)  27(42)   X(42)   X(42)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   X(10)   X(10)
ISLAS MARIAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  59(65)   X(65)   X(65)
MAZATLAN       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  31(31)   X(31)   X(31)
MAZATLAN       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   X(13)   X(13)

SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)  12(13)   X(13)   X(13)

P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

15N 105W       34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

MANZANILLO     34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

15N 110W       34  1   4( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

20N 110W       34  1   7( 8)  56(64)  26(90)   2(92)   X(92)   X(92)
20N 110W       50  X   1( 1)  21(22)  42(64)   2(66)   X(66)   X(66)
20N 110W       64  X   X( X)   7( 7)  28(35)   3(38)   X(38)   X(38)

ISLA SOCORRO   34  1  12(13)  44(57)   5(62)   1(63)   X(63)   X(63)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   1( 1)  15(16)   5(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

ISLA CLARION   34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

20N 115W       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    



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