Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Pamela Public Advisory


000
WTPZ31 KNHC 102038
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pamela Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162021
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM PAMELA...
...FORECAST TO IMPACT A PORTION OF THE MEXICO COAST BY MIDWEEK AS A
HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 105.9W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 535 MI...855 KM S OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in southern portions of Baja California del Sur and 
in west-central mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of 
Pamela.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pamela was 
located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 105.9 West. Pamela is 
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this 
motion at a slower forward speed is expected through tonight. A turn 
to the northwest and then north is forecast to occur late Monday 
into Tuesday, followed by a turn to the northeast by Tuesday night.  
On the forecast track, the Pamela will pass south of the southern 
tip of the Baja California peninsula Tuesday night or early 
Wednesday and approach the coast of west-central mainland Mexico 
on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with 
higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast over the next few days and 
Pamela is expected to become a hurricane by Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Pamela is expected to generate swells that will affect 
portions of the southern Baja California peninsula and southwestern 
and west-central mainland Mexico by late Tuesday. These swells are 
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto



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