Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Pamela Public Advisory


000
WTPZ31 KNHC 122343
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pamela Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162021
600 PM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021

...OUTER RAINBANDS FROM PAMELA MOVING OVER ISLAS MARIAS...
...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND 
MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 108.9W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 015 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bahia Tempehuaya to Escuinapa

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Bahia Tempehuaya to Altata
* South of Escuinapa to Cabo Corrientes
* Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Los Barilles to Cabo San Lucas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, in this case within the next 12 hours, producing conditions
that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations
to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pamela was
located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 108.9 West. Pamela is 
moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A faster 
northeastward motion is expected to begin overnight and continue 
through late Wednesday.  On the forecast track, the center of 
Pamela will pass well south of the southern tip of the Baja 
California peninsula through tonight, and make landfall in 
west-central Mexico within the hurricane warning area Wednesday 
morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Restrengthening is forecast overnight, and Pamela is 
expected to become a hurricane again before it reaches the coast 
of west-central Mexico Wednesday morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Pamela can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE:  Storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near where the center
of Pamela makes landfall in southwestern Mexico.  Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area by late tonight or early Wednesday, with tropical
storm conditions beginning later this evening. Tropical storm 
conditions, primarily in gusts, are possible within the Tropical 
Storm Watch area in Baja California del Sur through this evening.

RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Pamela is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:

Across the Mexican States of Sinaloa, western Durango, and northern
Nayarit...4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches.
This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides.

Across southern portions of Baja California Sur...2 to 4 inches
with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

Across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma...3 to 6
inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. This may result in
considerable flash and urban flooding impacts.

SURF:  Swells generated by Pamela will continue to affect portions 
of the southern Baja California peninsula, as well as southwestern 
and west-central mainland Mexico through Wednesday. These swells are 
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. 
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Reinhart



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