Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Pamela Public Advisory


000
WTPZ31 KNHC 120534
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pamela Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162021
1200 AM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021

...PAMELA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES WEST-CENTRAL 
MEXICO...
...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE THERE TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 108.9W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bahia Tempehuaya to Escuinapa

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Bahia Tempehuaya to Altata
* South of Escuinapa to Cabo Corrientes
* Isla Marias

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Los Barilles to Cabo San Lucas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pamela was 
located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 108.9 West. Pamela is 
moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn 
toward the north is forecast to occur later this morning, followed 
by a faster northeastward motion by tonight.  On the forecast track, 
the center of Pamela will pass well south of the southern tip of the 
Baja California peninsula through tonight, and make landfall in 
west-central Mexico within the hurricane warning area Wednesday 
morning.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Steady strengthening is forecast, and Pamela is expected to 
become a hurricane later this morning, and be near major hurricane 
strength when it reaches the coast of Mexico early Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  Storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near where the center
of Pamela makes landfall in southwestern Mexico.  Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area by late tonight or early Wednesday, with tropical
storm conditions beginning as early as this evening. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area
in Baja California del Sur this afternoon.

RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Pamela is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:

Across the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durango...4 to 8
inches with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. This rainfall may
trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

Across southern portions of Baja California Sur...2 to 4 inches
with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

Across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma...2 to 4
inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

SURF:  Swells generated by Pamela will affect portions of the
southern Baja California peninsula, southwestern and west-central
mainland Mexico beginning later today. These swells are likely to 
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please 
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



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