000 WTPZ31 KNHC 111749 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pamela Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 1200 PM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 ...PAMELA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT AND A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 108.2W ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM SSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bahia Tempehuaya to Escuinapa A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Bahia Tempehuaya to Altata * South of Escuinapa to San Blas * Isla Marias * Los Barilles to Cabo San Lucas A Hurricane Warning and a Tropical Storm Warning will likely be required tonight for portions of the current Watch areas by this afternoon or evening. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pamela was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 108.2 West. Pamela is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north is forecast to occur tonight into Tuesday, followed by a faster northeastward motion by Tuesday night. On the forecast track, Pamela will pass south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula Tuesday night or early Wednesday and make landfall on west-central mainland Mexico Wednesday morning. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, and Pamela is expected to become a hurricane by tonight and a major hurricane on Tuesday. Pamela is forecast remain a major hurricane until it reaches the coast of Mexico on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area by late Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Tuesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch areas by Tuesday afternoon. RAINFALL: Pamela is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Wednesday: Across the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durango... 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Across southern portions of Baja California Sur... 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. SURF: Pamela is expected to generate swells that will affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula and southwestern and west-central mainland Mexico by late Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart