Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Pamela Public Advisory


000
WTPZ31 KNHC 110231
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pamela Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162021
900 PM MDT Sun Oct 10 2021

...PAMELA STRENGTHENING...
...HURRICANE WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 106.8W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM S OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in southern Baja California del Sur, Sinaloa, Durango and
Nayarit should monitor the progress of Pamela.  Watches could
be issued for a portion of those states on Monday.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pamela was
located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 106.8 West. Pamela is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this 
general motion is expected through Monday.  A turn to the northwest 
and then north is forecast to occur late Monday into Tuesday, 
followed by a turn to the northeast by Tuesday night and increase 
in forward speed.  On the forecast track, Pamela will pass south of 
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula Tuesday night or 
early Wednesday and approach the coast of west-central mainland 
Mexico on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) 
with higher gusts. Pamela is forecast to be a hurricane by 
late tomorrow, and could be a major hurricane on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Pamela is expected to generate swells that will affect
portions of the southern Baja California peninsula and southwestern
and west-central mainland Mexico by late Tuesday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake



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