Pacific Hurricane Feed

Tropical Storm Pamela Forecast Discussion

WTPZ41 KNHC 131452

Tropical Storm Pamela Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162021
900 AM MDT Wed Oct 13 2021

Pamela is estimated to have made landfall around 1200 UTC close to 
Estacion Dimas in the Mexican state of Sinaloa as a 65-kt hurricane. 
To the southeast of the landfall location, observations from the 
Mazatlan Airport indicated wind gusts to 40 kt had occurred. There 
was also a storm chaser located at Marmor de Salcido, Mexico, who 
measured a minimum pressure of 990.8 mb with southeasterly winds to 
20 kt at 1208 UTC. Thus, based on these data, the estimated landfall 
location and an estimated minimum central pressure of 987 mb appears 
reasonable. Vigorous deep convection is still occuring around 
Pamela's estimated center as it moves farther inland. However, since 
the center has been onshore for a few hours now, the wind field is 
likely starting to spin down and maximum sustained winds are 
estimated to have decreased to 55 kt.

The tropical cyclone has been accelerating to the northeast this 
morning, with the latest estimated motion at 045/20 kt. Further 
acceleration to the northeast is expected as the system remains 
embedded in deep-layer southwesterly flow between a long-wave trough 
over the western United States and a mid-level ridge centered over 
the Gulf of Mexico. The track guidance is in good agreement on this 
solution with the storm losing its identity after the 12-h forecast 
period and the latest track forecast remains close to the model 
consensus solutions.

Pamela's circulation is not forecast to survive the passage over 
the high, rugged terrain of Central Mexico, but its remnants are 
expected to contain a large slug of deep-layer moisture that will be 
advected northeastward into the south-central United States. 
Additional heavy rainfall and flooding impacts are anticipated later 
today and on Thursday for these areas. 

Key Messages:

1. Although Pamela is moving inland into west-central Mexico this 
morning, a Tropical Storm warning remains in effect from Bahia 
Tempehuaya to Escuinapa where tropical storm conditions are still 
expected for the next several hours.  Residents in this area should 
follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Heavy rains associated with Pamela will continue across the
Mexican States of Sinaloa, western Durgano, and northern Nayarit
through today. This will pose a threat of significant and
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

3. Heavy rains associated with the remnants of Pamela are expected
across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma today
into Thursday. This may result in considerable flash and urban
flooding impacts.


INIT  13/1500Z 24.4N 106.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 12H  14/0000Z 26.6N 102.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND

Forecaster Papin

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