Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Pamela Forecast Advisory


000
WTPZ21 KNHC 102038
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM PAMELA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162021
2100 UTC SUN OCT 10 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR AND 
IN WEST-CENTRAL MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF 
PAMELA. 

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 105.9W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 105.9W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 105.4W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 16.0N 107.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 16.9N 108.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 18.1N 109.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  70SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 19.6N 109.9W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  90SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 21.2N 109.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 23.3N 108.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 28.1N 103.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 105.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO




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