Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Pamela Forecast Advisory


000
WTPZ21 KNHC 111457
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM PAMELA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162021
1500 UTC MON OCT 11 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA SOUTHWARD
TO ESCUINAPA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA
NORTHWARD TO ALTATA...AND ALSO FROM ESCUINAPA SOUTHWARD TO SAN
BLAS...INCLUDING ALL THE ISLA MARIAS ARCHIPELAGO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM LOS BARILLES SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO ESCUINAPA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO ALTATA
* SOUTH OF ESCUINAPA TO SAN BLAS
* ISLA MARIAS
* LOS BARILLES TO CABO SAN LUCAS

A HURRICANE WARNING AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE CURRENT WATCH AREAS BY THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 108.1W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 108.1W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 107.9W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 17.8N 108.9W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 19.3N 109.3W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.1N 108.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  80SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 23.3N 107.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 25.7N 104.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 29.1N 100.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 108.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 11/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




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