454 WTPZ21 KNHC 110830 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM PAMELA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 0900 UTC MON OCT 11 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR...SINALOA...DURANGO AND NAYARIT SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PAMELA. WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THOSE STATES LATER THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 107.6W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 107.6W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 107.2W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 16.9N 108.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 18.2N 109.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 19.9N 109.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 21.8N 108.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 24.2N 106.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 110SE 80SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 26.9N 103.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 107.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI