Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Pamela Forecast Advisory


454 
WTPZ21 KNHC 110830
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM PAMELA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162021
0900 UTC MON OCT 11 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR...SINALOA...DURANGO
AND
NAYARIT SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PAMELA.  WATCHES WILL LIKELY
BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THOSE STATES LATER THIS MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 107.6W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 107.6W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 107.2W

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 16.9N 108.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  40SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 18.2N 109.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 19.9N 109.3W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  80SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 21.8N 108.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 24.2N 106.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  50SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 110SE  80SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 26.9N 103.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 107.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI





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