Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Pamela Forecast Advisory


576 
WTPZ21 KNHC 110230
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM PAMELA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162021
0300 UTC MON OCT 11 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR...SINALOA...DURANGO
AND NAYARIT SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PAMELA.  WATCHES COULD
BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THOSE STATES ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 106.8W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 106.8W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 106.4W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 16.5N 108.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 17.6N 109.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 19.0N 109.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 20.7N 109.4W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 22.8N 108.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 100SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 25.5N 106.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  90SE  60SW  30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 106.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE





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