Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Paine Forecast Discussion


179 
WTPZ42 KNHC 032037
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Paine Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172022
300 PM MDT Mon Oct 03 2022

Satellite imagery indicates that the low pressure system located 
several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the 
Baja California peninsula has been producing convection for the 
better part of the last 18 to 24 hours, though it has been somewhat 
sheared off to the west of the low-level circulation.  CI numbers 
from TAFB and SAB are 2.0 and 1.5, respectively, and recently the 
convection has built slightly closer to the center.  An earlier 
AMSR2 microwave pass from 03/0913 UTC showed improved banding 
structure compared to yesterday.  A 03/1638 UTC ASCAT-B pass shows a 
well-defined closed circulation, with wind vectors that support 
maximum sustained winds near 35 kt.  On this basis, the disturbance 
is upgraded to Tropical Storm Paine.  The ASCAT data indicates that 
Paine is a small cyclone, with tropical storm force winds extending 
outward only about 30 n mi from the center.

Paine is located in an environment of moderate vertical wind shear 
and warm sea-surface temperatures. However, relatively dry mid-level 
air is present over this portion of the Pacific. The dry air should 
limit significant strengthening over the first 24 to 36 hours, 
while the wind shear remains moderate.  Beyond 36 hours, wind shear 
increases further and the mid-level air becomes even drier.  This 
should lead to weakening, and by 60 hours, Paine is likely to lose 
all of its deep convection and become a remnant low.

The initial motion is 345/5 kt. The cyclone should continue on a 
similar heading for the next couple of days.  A mid-level ridge 
located to the north of Paine after that time should induce a 
gradual turn to the west.  The cyclone will also lose its convection 
at around that time, with the shallow remnant low moving westward 
with the trade wind flow.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 15.9N 112.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 16.4N 112.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 17.3N 112.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  05/0600Z 18.1N 113.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  05/1800Z 18.5N 113.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  06/0600Z 18.7N 114.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/1800Z 18.8N 114.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Brown




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