Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Paine Forecast Advisory


000
WTPZ22 KNHC 041444
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM PAINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172022
1500 UTC TUE OCT 04 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 113.0W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE   0SE  45SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 113.0W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 112.9W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.1N 113.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.6N 114.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.9N 114.4W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 19.2N 114.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.4N 115.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.4N 116.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 113.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




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