Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Orlene Forecast Advisory


000
WTPZ21 KNHC 290832
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162022
0900 UTC THU SEP 29 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 104.9W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 104.9W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 104.4W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 15.5N 106.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 16.4N 107.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.2N 108.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 17.9N 108.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 18.9N 108.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 20.0N 108.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 22.6N 107.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 25.3N 107.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 104.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO




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