228 WTPZ21 KNHC 010259 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162022 0300 UTC SAT OCT 01 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS...AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR FROM SAN BLAS TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAS ISLAS MARIAS * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM SAN BLAS TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO PLAYA PERULA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ORLENE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT OR SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 107.2W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 107.2W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 107.2W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 17.6N 107.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.6N 107.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 19.8N 106.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 21.1N 106.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 22.4N 106.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 23.6N 106.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 25.5N 105.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 107.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 01/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI