Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Orlene Forecast Advisory


228 
WTPZ21 KNHC 010259
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162022
0300 UTC SAT OCT 01 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS...AND A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR FROM SAN BLAS TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM SAN BLAS TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ORLENE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES
OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS
OVERNIGHT OR SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 107.2W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 107.2W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 107.2W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 17.6N 107.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.6N 107.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 19.8N 106.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 21.1N 106.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 22.4N 106.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 23.6N 106.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 25.5N 105.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 107.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 01/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI





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