Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Orlene Forecast Advisory


000
WTPZ21 KNHC 302031
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162022
2100 UTC FRI SEP 30 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR LAS ISLAS
MARIAS...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO SAN BLAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO SAN BLAS

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ORLENE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES
OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS
TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 107.1W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 107.1W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 107.1W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 17.2N 107.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 18.0N 107.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 19.1N 107.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 20.6N 106.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 21.9N 106.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 23.0N 106.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 25.5N 106.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 107.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 01/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




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