Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Orlene Forecast Advisory


000
WTPZ21 KNHC 301436
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162022
1500 UTC FRI SEP 30 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO AND IN THE ISLAS
MARIAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ORLENE. WATCHES WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 107.1W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 15NE  15SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE  30SE  45SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 107.1W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 107.0W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 16.7N 107.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 17.5N 107.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.4N 107.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 19.7N 107.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 21.4N 106.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 22.9N 106.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 25.1N 106.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 107.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




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