Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Orlene Forecast Advisory


487 
WTPZ21 KNHC 291444
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162022
1500 UTC THU SEP 29 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ORLENE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 105.9W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 105.9W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 105.4W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 15.8N 107.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 16.6N 108.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 17.4N 108.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 18.2N 108.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 19.3N 108.4W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 20.5N 108.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 22.9N 107.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 26.0N 107.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 105.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN





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