487 WTPZ21 KNHC 291444 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162022 1500 UTC THU SEP 29 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ORLENE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 105.9W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 105.9W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 105.4W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 15.8N 107.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 16.6N 108.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 17.4N 108.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 18.2N 108.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 19.3N 108.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 20.5N 108.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 22.9N 107.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 26.0N 107.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 105.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN