Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Newton Wind Speed Probabilities


000
FOPZ15 KNHC 220244
PWSEP5

TROPICAL STORM NEWTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152022               
0300 UTC THU SEP 22 2022                                            

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NEWTON WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

ISLAS MARIAS   34  2   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

MANZANILLO     34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

15N 110W       34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

20N 110W       34  4  15(19)  12(31)   1(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)

ISLA SOCORRO   34  3  22(25)  32(57)   5(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   2( 2)  14(16)   5(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

ISLA CLARION   34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

20N 115W       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN/JELSEMA                                         



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