000 WTPZ45 KNHC 220245 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Newton Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022 900 PM MDT Wed Sep 21 2022 The satellite presentation of the recently formed Tropical Depression Fifteen has improved considerably during the past 24 hours. A well defined banding structure has developed and held in place during the past several hours, with nice outflow evident aloft in satellite imagery. The latest intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were 35 knots, while ADT and AiDT from UW-CIMSS indicating slightly lower. These intensity estimates appear to be a bit behind the curve given the banding structure and organization seen in recent microwave imagery. In fact, TAFB provided a Dvorak pattern T-number of 3.0 (45 kt), which is the basis for the initial intensity of this advisory. The initial motion estimate on Newton is to the west-northwest or 285/11 kt. This general motion with a gradual slowing in the forward speed is expected during the next several days as the cyclone is steered by a mid-level ridge to the northeast and a weakness aloft to the west associated with the remnants of former tropical cyclone Madeline. The NHC track forecast was adjusted slightly faster and a bit north of the previous forecast, and is close to the tightly clustered consensus track guidance. Environmental conditions appear favorable for some additional strengthening tonight and Wednesday, as vertical wind shear remains low, mid-levels moist, and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) remain at 27/28C. Beyond this, while shear remains low, the mid-levels dry out considerably and SSTs decrease to near 26C. This should lead to steady weakening with Newton degenerating into a post-tropical remnant low Friday night or Saturday, and dissipating shortly thereafter. The NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted upward to account for the increase in initial intensity, and is roughly between the statistical and dynamical intensity aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 17.6N 107.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 18.0N 108.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 18.3N 109.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 18.6N 110.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 18.9N 111.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 24/1200Z 19.3N 113.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown/Jelsema