Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Newton Forecast Discussion


669 
WTPZ45 KNHC 240228
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Newton Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152022
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
900 PM MDT Fri Sep 23 2022

The low-level center of Newton has once again become obscured
by convection flaring near the center. A recent GPM microwave pass,
the recent exposure of the low-level center, and scatterometer  
passes a few hours ago give high confidence in the location of the 
center. The initial intensity for this advisory remains at 40 kt 
based on a blend of the Dvorak analyses, including fixes from PHFO,  
SATCON and AODT.

Newton is expected to continue gradually weakening over the next
several days. The system will remain over SSTs between 27-28C
through 72 hours. The SHIPS and global models show the system will
encounter increasing southerly shear in about 12 to 24 hours. 
The system will also be encountering drier air over the next 
several days. All combined, these factors will lead to the slow 
weakening of the system, transitioning to a remnant low and then 
dissipating in 72 hours.

The system has moved a little more to the northwest with this   
advisory, driven in part by the bursts of convection that have been  
observed over the last several hours. This movement remains close 
to the forecasted track. The system is expected to continue moving 
to the northwest for the next 24 to 36 hours, before making a turn  
to the southwest as it weakens. The forecast track remains on the 
southern side of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 18.6N 111.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 19.0N 113.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 19.3N 114.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 19.1N 116.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 18.5N 117.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 60H  26/1200Z 17.7N 118.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Powell/M Ballard




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