Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Newton Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ45 KNHC 232031
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Newton Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152022
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
300 PM MDT Fri Sep 23 2022

The low-level center of Newton has become exposed, with the
convection sheared to the east and southeast of the center. 
A census of the Dvorak estimates would support an initial 
intensity around 45 kt. With visible imagery since fix time
continuing the shearing trend, the initial intensity for 
this advisory is set to 40 kt. A 1635Z scatterometer pass 
captured Newton, further supporting the low level center
location of the low level center. This places the center
about 15 nm to the south of the previous track. 

Further weakening is expected as the storm moves to the west 
into a drier and more stable airmass. SSTs are near 81F with 
little change expected along the forecast track, so we not expecting
the SSTs to be much of a factor in the weakening of the system. 
Newton is expected to transition to a remnant low and then 
dissipate within 72 hours. 

Newton continues to move to the west-northwest, but the short
term forward motion has slowed to around 4 kt as it moves along 
the southwest edge of a mid-level ridge. The track has been 
shifted just a touch to the south, but remains on the southern 
side of the guidance envelope which remain tightly spread,
particularly in the short term. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 18.2N 111.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 18.6N 112.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  24/1800Z 19.0N 114.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  25/0600Z 19.0N 115.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  25/1800Z 18.5N 116.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 60H  26/0600Z 17.8N 118.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Powell/M Ballard



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