000 WTPZ45 KNHC 232031 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Newton Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 300 PM MDT Fri Sep 23 2022 The low-level center of Newton has become exposed, with the convection sheared to the east and southeast of the center. A census of the Dvorak estimates would support an initial intensity around 45 kt. With visible imagery since fix time continuing the shearing trend, the initial intensity for this advisory is set to 40 kt. A 1635Z scatterometer pass captured Newton, further supporting the low level center location of the low level center. This places the center about 15 nm to the south of the previous track. Further weakening is expected as the storm moves to the west into a drier and more stable airmass. SSTs are near 81F with little change expected along the forecast track, so we not expecting the SSTs to be much of a factor in the weakening of the system. Newton is expected to transition to a remnant low and then dissipate within 72 hours. Newton continues to move to the west-northwest, but the short term forward motion has slowed to around 4 kt as it moves along the southwest edge of a mid-level ridge. The track has been shifted just a touch to the south, but remains on the southern side of the guidance envelope which remain tightly spread, particularly in the short term. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 18.2N 111.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 18.6N 112.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 19.0N 114.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 19.0N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 18.5N 116.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 26/0600Z 17.8N 118.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Powell/M Ballard