Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Newton Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ45 KNHC 231449
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Newton Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152022
900 AM MDT Fri Sep 23 2022

Newton has had deep, persistent convection through the morning 
with cloud top temperatures are below -75 degrees C.  Microwave 
imagery shows a small inner core, but not with the same definition 
as yesterday.  A blend of the satellite Dvorak estimates supports 
an initial intensity of 45 kt for this advisory.

Gradual weakening is expected while the storm moves into a drier, 
more stable environment to the north.  Statistical model guidance 
also indicates vertical wind shear to increase in a day or so which 
is likely to contribute to additional weakening.  Eventual 
transition into a remnant low is forecast within about three days, 
and little change was made to the previous NHC prediction. 

Newton is moving west-northwestward at about 6 kt along the 
southwest edge of a mid-level ridge over northwestern Mexico, 
although there is some uncertainty in the initial position since 
the low-level center has tucked up underneath a burst of convection. 
The center is estimated to be slightly north of the previous track 
forecast, and therefore the short-term model track guidance has 
shifted northward as well.  Beyond 24 hours, the official track 
forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and within the 
small spread of the multi-model consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 18.4N 110.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 18.8N 112.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 19.4N 113.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  25/0000Z 19.7N 115.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  25/1200Z 19.5N 116.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  26/0000Z 18.6N 118.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  26/1200Z 17.8N 119.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci



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