000 WTPZ45 KNHC 231449 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Newton Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 23 2022 Newton has had deep, persistent convection through the morning with cloud top temperatures are below -75 degrees C. Microwave imagery shows a small inner core, but not with the same definition as yesterday. A blend of the satellite Dvorak estimates supports an initial intensity of 45 kt for this advisory. Gradual weakening is expected while the storm moves into a drier, more stable environment to the north. Statistical model guidance also indicates vertical wind shear to increase in a day or so which is likely to contribute to additional weakening. Eventual transition into a remnant low is forecast within about three days, and little change was made to the previous NHC prediction. Newton is moving west-northwestward at about 6 kt along the southwest edge of a mid-level ridge over northwestern Mexico, although there is some uncertainty in the initial position since the low-level center has tucked up underneath a burst of convection. The center is estimated to be slightly north of the previous track forecast, and therefore the short-term model track guidance has shifted northward as well. Beyond 24 hours, the official track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and within the small spread of the multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 18.4N 110.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 18.8N 112.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 19.4N 113.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 19.7N 115.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 19.5N 116.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 18.6N 118.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/1200Z 17.8N 119.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci