022 WTPZ45 KNHC 222042 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Newton Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 22 2022 Convection in the core of Newton has collapsed rather suddenly in the past few hours, likely due to the ingestion of dry air. The central dense overcast is largely gone and only small bursts of convection are still firing near the estimated center where cloud top temperatures are warmer than -70 degrees C. Subjective Dvorak classification still range between 35 to 55 kt, though the objective estimates have been declining since the previous advisory. The initial intensity has therefore been lowered to 50 kt. Newton continues to move west-northwestward at 285/6 kt. The cyclone is moving along the southwest periphery of a well-established ridge centered over Texas. This ridge will be the main feature steering the storm until the shallow vortex turns westward in about 3 days. The model guidance envelope has shifted northward beyond the 36 hour forecast period. In response, the official track forecast has been shift slightly to the right of previous advisory after a day or so. The small size of Newton has made it susceptible to modest changes in the near-storm environment. Though the statistical guidance is analyzing low vertical wind shear, the satellite presentation of the storm would suggest a dry air intrusion has interrupted strengthening and induced weakening. Forecast Intensity Guidance now indicates Newton will weaken and ultimately become a remnant low in a couple of days or so. The NHC intensity prediction no longer shows strengthening and instead calls for gradual weakening until dissipation at 96 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 18.0N 109.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 18.2N 110.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 18.7N 111.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 19.3N 113.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 19.8N 114.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 25/0600Z 20.0N 116.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1800Z 19.9N 117.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci