Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Newton Forecast Discussion


494 
WTPZ45 KNHC 221446
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Newton Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152022
900 AM MDT Thu Sep 22 2022

Newton remains a small, well-organized tropical cyclone.  A
microwave pass from 1210 UTC revealed a tiny eye-like feature.
While the central dense overcast has warmed, upper-level outflow is
still prominent in the southern and eastern portions of the
circulation, and new deep convection continues to form in the core.
There is still a relatively large range of satellite intensity
estimates (35-55 kt), likely due to the small size of the cyclone,
but the initial intensity is raised to 55 kt with the improved
microwave structure.

The storm is moving west-northwestward at 7 kt.  A ridge to the
northeast is steering Newton and should be the dominant synoptic
feature influencing the track for the next few days.  The track
prediction is largely unchanged from the previous advisory and in
the center of the tightly clustered model guidance.

The intensity forecast for this system remains somewhat uncertain.
Global model guidance has largely missed the development and
intensification of Newton, again, possibly due to its size.
Statistical guidance suggests the cyclone will be in a conducive
atmospheric environment for the next 24 hours before the vertical
wind shear increases and mid-level moisture begins to decrease
further.  Sea surface temperatures are expected to also gradually
decrease as Newton moves near the cold wake of Kay and Madeline.
The official intensity forecast keeps Newton at 55 kt before
weakening begins in 24 hours through the end of the forecast as
oceanic and atmospheric conditions become less favorable.  The
prediction still shows Newton as a post-tropical remnant low by 72
hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 17.9N 108.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 18.1N 109.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 18.4N 110.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  24/0000Z 19.0N 112.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  24/1200Z 19.4N 114.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  25/0000Z 19.6N 115.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  25/1200Z 19.8N 117.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci




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