Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Newton Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ45 KNHC 241448
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Newton Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152022
900 AM MDT Sat Sep 24 2022

Small bursts of convection continue to form near the center of
Newton's center.  A recent satellite microwave pass still showed
a small curved band in the northern semicircle of the circulation.
Subjective and objective satellite classifications range between
25-35 kt.  The initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 35
kt.

The combination of low environmental relative humidities and
moderate vertical wind shear are expected to slowly weaken Newton, 
despite the relatively warm sea surface temperatures.  There is 
little change in the latest intensity forecast and Newton is still 
expected to become a remnant low in two days and dissipate within 
three days. 

Newton is moving west-northwestward at 7 kt and gradually turning to 
the west.  As convection slowly dwindles, the shallow vortex is 
expected to turn westward and eventually southwestward in the 
low-level flow in the next day or so.  The track guidance is 
tightly clustered and the official forecast track is very similar to 
the previous prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 19.1N 113.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 19.3N 114.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 19.1N 115.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  26/0000Z 18.5N 117.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  26/1200Z 17.5N 118.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  27/0000Z 16.3N 119.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci



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