Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Newton Forecast Discussion


686 
WTPZ45 KNHC 240846
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Newton Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152022
300 AM MDT Sat Sep 24 2022

While Newton is producing small areas of convection near and 
north of the center, the storm is gradually becoming less 
organized.  Satellite intensity estimates are generally in the 
30-40 kt range, and based on the decreased organization since the 
last advisory the initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt.

While Newton is likely to stay over warm sea surface temperatures, 
a combination of a dry air mass and southerly vertical wind shear 
should cause weakening.  The new intensity forecast calls for the 
cyclone to decay to a remnant low by 48 h and to dissipate 
completely by 72 h.  This much longevity could be generous, as 
several of the global models forecast an earlier dissipation.

The initial motion is 290/8 kt. A general west-northwest motion is 
forecast for about 12 h, followed by a turn toward the west and 
eventually west-southwest.  The track guidance is in good agreement 
on this scenario, and the new forecast track is near the various 
consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0900Z 18.9N 112.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 19.2N 113.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 19.2N 115.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  25/1800Z 18.9N 116.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  26/0600Z 18.1N 117.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  26/1800Z 16.8N 119.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven




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