000
FOPZ14 KNHC 172032
PWSEP4
TROPICAL STORM MADELINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142022
2100 UTC SAT SEP 17 2022
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MADELINE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
15N 105W 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MANZANILLO 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
15N 110W 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
20N 110W 34 X 3( 3) 21(24) 26(50) 3(53) 1(54) X(54)
20N 110W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18)
20N 110W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 14(23) 3(26) 1(27) X(27)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 3(11)
20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 4(17)
20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY