Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Madeline Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ44 KNHC 191501
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Madeline Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142022
900 AM MDT Mon Sep 19 2022

Madeline's satellite presentation has improved some this morning.  
Although the east-northeasterly shear continues to impede deep 
convective development in the northeast quadrant.  A new burst of 
convection with cold cloud tops of -80C have developed just to the 
southeast of the surface center.  An earlier AMSR-2 microwave pass 
also showed improved curved banding in the western semicircle.  
Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimate T-numbers 
from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS, respectively, along with an earlier 
SATCON analysis supports a slight increase to 55 kt for this 
advisory.

Increasing deep-layer shear and decreasing oceanic surface 
temperatures ahead of Madeline's track should induce a weakening 
trend later tonight.  The global model simulated IR imagery 
shows that the cyclone should shed its deep convection 
by early Wednesday and degenerate into a remnant low-pressure 
system.  The official intensity forecast is similar to last night's 
advisory and continues to side with the IVCN consensus model.

Madeline's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 
315/7 kt.  A subtropical ridge over northwestern Mexico is 
expected to build over the Baja California peninsula and to the 
north of Madeline by tonight.  In response to this change in the 
synoptic steering pattern, the cyclone should turn toward the 
west-northwest by tonight and slowly turn westward on Wednesday. 
Madeline should continue in this heading as a remnant low through 
the remainder of the period.  The NHC track forecast has been 
nudged a little to the south of the previous one within 36 hours to 
coincide with the various consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1500Z 20.6N 108.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 21.0N 109.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  20/1200Z 21.4N 111.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  21/0000Z 21.7N 112.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  21/1200Z 21.9N 113.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  22/0000Z 21.9N 115.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  22/1200Z 21.9N 116.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  23/1200Z 21.9N 119.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  24/1200Z 21.8N 122.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts



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