Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Madeline Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ44 KNHC 200243
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Madeline Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142022
900 PM MDT Mon Sep 19 2022

Madeline is on a gradual decline.  The deep convection that is 
confined to the west of the cyclone's low-level center is slowly 
decaying in the presence of 20 kt of east-northeasterly shear and 
marginal SSTs of 26 degrees C.  The latest Dvorak T-numbers from 
TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT have decreased from 6 h ago, and a 
blend of their CI values suggest that the initial intensity has 
decreased to 45 kt.

Madeline continues to move west-northwestward, or 285/7 kt.  An 
ongoing west-northwestward motion is expected during the next day 
or so while the storm remains steered by a deep-layer ridge 
centered over southern Texas.  After that time, a turn to the west 
is expected when the system becomes shallow and moves within the 
low-level trade winds.  The NHC track forecast is little changed 
from the previous one and is near the various multi-model consensus 
tracks. 

The east-northeasterly shear is expected to persist while Madeline 
moves into a region of drier air and over cooler SSTs.  Therefore 
steady weakening is expected, and the cyclone is expected to 
degenerate into post-tropical remnant low, devoid of persistent 
organized deep convection, by early Wednesday.  The latest NHC 
intensity forecast was nudged slightly lower through 48 h due to the 
decrease in the initial intensity, but remains slightly higher than 
the HCCA and IVCN consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0300Z 21.0N 110.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  20/1200Z 21.1N 111.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  21/0000Z 21.4N 113.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  21/1200Z 21.7N 114.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  22/0000Z 21.7N 116.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  22/1200Z 21.7N 117.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  23/0000Z 21.6N 118.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  24/0000Z 21.3N 121.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  25/0000Z 21.1N 124.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Latto



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