000 WTPZ24 KNHC 172031 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MADELINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142022 2100 UTC SAT SEP 17 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 106.9W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 1 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 110SE 70SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 210SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 106.9W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 106.9W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.0N 107.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 110SE 80SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.4N 107.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 19.5N 108.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.2N 110.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.4N 111.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.5N 112.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 20.5N 115.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 20.5N 118.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 106.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY