Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Madeline Forecast Advisory


000
WTPZ24 KNHC 172031
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM MADELINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142022
2100 UTC SAT SEP 17 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 106.9W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   1 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE 110SE  70SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 210SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 106.9W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 106.9W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.0N 107.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 110SE  80SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.4N 107.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  90SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 19.5N 108.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  80SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.2N 110.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  80SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.4N 111.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.5N 112.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 20.5N 115.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 20.5N 118.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 106.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY




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