309 WTPZ24 KNHC 181436 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MADELINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142022 1500 UTC SUN SEP 18 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MANZANILLO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 106.9W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 130SE 130SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 330SE 300SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 106.9W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 106.7W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 19.5N 107.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 20.4N 108.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 21.0N 110.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.3N 111.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.5N 112.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.6N 113.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 21.4N 116.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 21.1N 119.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 106.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 18/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG