Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Madeline Forecast Advisory


309 
WTPZ24 KNHC 181436
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM MADELINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142022
1500 UTC SUN SEP 18 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 106.9W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 130SE 130SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 330SE 300SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 106.9W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 106.7W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 19.5N 107.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  90SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 20.4N 108.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 21.0N 110.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.3N 111.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.5N 112.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.6N 113.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 21.4N 116.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 21.1N 119.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 106.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 18/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG





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