Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Lester Wind Speed Probabilities


000
FOPZ13 KNHC 170855
PWSEP3

TROPICAL STORM LESTER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132022               
0900 UTC SAT SEP 17 2022                                            

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESTER WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

L CARDENAS     34  X   9( 9)   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
L CARDENAS     50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

ZIHUATANEJO    34  1  18(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
ZIHUATANEJO    50  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

15N 100W       34  4   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

ACAPULCO       34 63   4(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)
ACAPULCO       50  7   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

P MALDONADO    34 94   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BUCCI                                                    



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