Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Lester Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ43 KNHC 160858
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Lester Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132022
400 AM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E has been upgraded to Tropical Storm 
Lester.  While the storm still has a sheared appearance, recent 
scatterometer data indicate that surface wind speeds have 
increased in the southern half of the circulation and show an area 
of 30-32 kt winds. Satellite Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB 
range between 30-35 kt. Given the potential for undersampling in the 
satellite winds, the initial intensity for this advisory is set at 
35 kt.

The cyclone is currently moving north-northwestward at about 4 kt.  
Model guidance agrees that the storm should turn northwestward 
shortly within the eastern portion of the monsoonal flow.  Over the 
next couple of days, Lester is expected to increase in forward speed 
as it moves toward the Mexican coast, and the center is forecast to 
cross the coastline sometime Saturday afternoon or evening.  The 
official track forecast is very similar to the previous one and 
remains close to the model consensus aids.

Lester is expected to remain embedded in moderate northeasterly 
vertical wind shear for the next 48 h.  Global model guidance 
suggests other atmospheric and oceanic conditions, such as 
environmental moisture and sea surface temperatures, should be 
conducive for possible strengthening. Therefore, the NHC intensity 
forecast still shows gradual strengthening until landfall along the 
coast of Mexico.  The storm is expected to rapidly weaken once it 
moves inland over the mountainous terrain.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains from Tropical Storm Lester will reach portions of 
coastal southern Mexico by this evening, increasing in coverage and 
intensity Saturday and Saturday night, spreading farther west on 
Sunday. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding, along 
with possible mudslides in areas of higher coastal terrain.  

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of 
southern Mexico on Saturday within the Tropical Storm Warning area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0900Z 13.2N  95.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  16/1800Z 13.8N  96.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  17/0600Z 15.0N  98.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  17/1800Z 16.4N  99.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  18/0600Z 18.0N 101.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 60H  18/1800Z 19.0N 103.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci



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