Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Lester Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ43 KNHC 170855
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Lester Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132022
400 AM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022

Lester has become slightly better organized overnight.  Deep 
convection has continuously pulsed west and southwest (in the 
downshear quadrants) of the estimated low-level circulation through 
the night with cloud top temperatures below -80 degrees C.  
Subjective and objective Dvorak classifications range between 35-45 
kt and the initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt to 
represent a blend of these estimates.

The storm is moving northwestward at about 9 kt in the southeasterly 
flow between a cyclonic gyre to the west and a mid-level ridge 
centered over Texas and northern Mexico.  This general motion is 
expected to continue until landfall.  The official forecast track 
has changed little from the previous advisory. The center of 
Lester is expected to reach the coast of Mexico later this afternoon 
or evening and then dissipate as it moves inland on Sunday.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are expected to remain the same 
until the storm moves inland.  Lester is over very warm waters and 
surrounded by high environmental moisture.  However, the storm 
continues to experience moderate northeasterly shear that should 
persist until landfall.  Combined, these factors will likely allow 
for some slight strengthening.  The NHC forecast still shows a peak 
of 45 kt as Lester reaches the coast.  The cyclone should rapidly 
weaken over the high terrain shortly thereafter and dissipate within 
a couple of days.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains from Lester will continue for portions of coastal 
southern Mexico into Sunday. This rainfall may produce flash and 
urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher 
coastal terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread along the coast 
of southwestern Mexico today within the Tropical Storm Warning area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0900Z 15.4N  98.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  17/1800Z 16.7N  99.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  18/0600Z 18.1N 101.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  18/1800Z 19.6N 102.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci



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