000 WTPZ32 KNHC 042035 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kay Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022 400 PM CDT Sun Sep 04 2022 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM KAY... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 102.5W ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula should closely monitor the progress of Kay. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kay was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 102.5 West. Kay is moving toward the west-northwest at 13 mph (20 km/h) and a west to west-northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the north. Kay is expected to remain south of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected, and Kay is forecast to become a hurricane in a day or two. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Kay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. SURF: Swells generated by Kay are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico. These swells are expected to reach the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula by Tuesday, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, with isolated storm totals of 5 inches, across coastal portions of southwestern Mexico from Guerrero northwestward to Jalisco over the next few days. WIND: Gusty winds are likely near the coast of southwestern Mexico in outer rainbands during the next couple of days. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi