Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Kay Public Advisory


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Tropical Storm Kay Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122022
500 AM PDT Fri Sep 09 2022

...KAY CONTINUES MOVING PARALLEL TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING ONGOING IN MEXICO AND ANTICIPATED TO
SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 116.2W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM NNW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSE OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Abreojos northward along the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula to the U.S./Mexico border
* Santa Rosalia northward along the east coast of the Baja
California peninsula and then southward to Bahia Kino in mainland
Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests in southern California should monitor the progress of Kay
and consult products from your local weather office.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM PDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kay was
located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 116.2 West. Kay is
moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slower
northwestward to west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin
today and continue into Saturday.  A turn to the west is expected by
late Saturday.  On the forecast track, the center of Kay will move
parallel to the coast of the northwestern Baja California peninsula
through today, and then begin to move further offshore by Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (80 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next
couple of days, and Kay is expected to degenerate into a remnant low
by Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center, mainly to the east of the center over the Gulf of 
California.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Kay can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the
Tropical Storm Warning area and are forecast to spread northward
today.

Strong winds not directly associated with Kay's core wind field are
expected across portions of southern California and extreme
southwestern Arizona beginning today. For information on this
wind hazard, users should see High Wind Warnings and other products
from their local NWS Weather Forecast Office.

STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds
along the west coast of the central and northern Baja California
peninsula of Mexico and along the coast of the northern Gulf of
California.  The flooding could be accompanied by large and
damaging waves.

RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce the following rainfall totals
through Saturday:

Baja California Peninsula: 6 to 10 inches, isolated maxima of 15
inches

Northwest Mainland Mexico:  2 to 4 inches, isolated maxima of 6
inches

Southernmost California:  2 to 4 inches with isolated maxima of 6
to 8 inches

Southwest Arizona: 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 3 inches

These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, with landslides
possible across mountainous areas of Mexico.

SURF:  Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Large
swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California
peninsula coast, into the Gulf of California, and to southern
California during the next couple of days. These swells will
likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

NNNN



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